In Spanish, the literal translation of herd immunity is inmunidad de rebaño. However, the term is more frequently translated as inmunidad de grupo [group immunity], probably because a group is usually composed of people, apart from the consideration that no one wishes to be regarded as livestock.
However, the concept of herd does not deserve negative semantic vibes. Herds used to be very important, especially in the days when cowboys, like the Marlboro Man (who predictably died of lung cancer), moved cattle long distances to market. In fact cattle drives used to be a major economic activity in the American West between the years 1866-1895.
When I was young, there was a popular Western television series called Rawhide, which launched the acting career of Clint Eastwood. It was about a group of cowboys, driving a herd of cattle from San Antonio, Texas to Sedalia, Missouri. Since this distance of 800 miles took the cattle drive approximately five years to cover (when the series finally ended), they evidently opted for the scenic route. All of us tuned in every Friday night to see the cattle drivers help people out on the trail, outwit bandits, protect the cattle from wolves, and even combat mysterious epidemics.
The cattle in this herd were evidently the unsung heroes in each program since the series could not have existed without them. However, their names never appeared in the credits, and their only pay was the grass that they managed to scavenge on the prairie.
Now, in Times of Coronavirus, herds have once again come into the spotlight. In fact, just as orange is the new black, and 60 is the new 40, WE are the new herd.
As is well known, ‘herd immunity’ was a (failed) strategy marketed by Boris Johnson. Initially, all Britons had the inalienable right to go to their favorite pub. If this right were taken away, the prime minister feared that they would paint themselves blue, gird their loins, and rebel. Fortunately, none of this finally happened.
When the coronavirus infections began to soar, this ‘inalienable right’ was swiftly rescinded, and no one objected. On the contrary, everyone retrieved their stiff upper lip from the mothballs, dusted it off, and had a good cup of tea (at home). This decision was made when the price of herd immunity became too high to pay. Great Britain now has a death toll of 33,614 (495 deaths per million). Herd immunity, at least without a vaccine, is not a free ride.
Spain, on the other hand, with 584 deaths per million is in even worse shape than the UK. Nevertheless, the herd immunity strategy is not to blame because Spain never applied it. Instead, it chose not to apply any strategy at all. The government vainly hoped that by doing nothing, they would be doing something.
As we all know (especially those who mourn loved ones), this non-strategy did not meet with success. When the hospital system almost collapsed and the ER hallways of hospitals throughout Spain were littered with makeshift mattresses, it finally dawned on the government that Covid-19 would not magically disappear.
It is a pity that it takes a catastrophe of such dimensions for people to realize that ostrich tactics are not an option. A variation on this same theme is when heads of state piously wash their hands, refuse to issue any clear guidelines, and allow regional leaders to do as they wish.
The herd immunity decision opens the door to the choice between Scylla or Charybdis and the issue of Wergild (Olde English for ‘man-price’) as discussed in a previous post. How many deaths are worth a more or less normal life (assuming one is still alive to enjoy it)? Is the number 200 or 20? If a few hundred anonymous aborigines in Papua New Guinea die, maybe the answer is yes. (After all, sacrifices must be made for the greater good.) However, if the dead people happen to be twenty close friends or family members, then the price is too high.
In Spain, this issue has recently popped up again like one of those disagreeable clowns that can never be knocked down unless they are deflated. The preliminary results of the first seroprevalence study made by the Spanish government have just been published. The objective was to discover the level of immunity to coronavirus, as measured in the presence or absence of antibodies in the blood serum of a significant number of people (in this case, 60,983).
The government was hoping that the news would be good and that something positive could finally be extracted from all of this suffering and death. If Spaniards turned out to be a herd, then restrictions could be less draconian, and it would be safer to return to the new normal, despite an occasional hiccup in the numbers. The results, however, are not promising.
In Spain, one’s degree of immunity seems to depend on where one lives. Not surprisingly, the provinces that were hardest hit by Covid-19 have more people with antibodies. For example, Madrid has an immunity rate of 11.3%, whereas in Granada, the rate is 2.4%. The national average stands at about 5%. After so many deaths, this hardly seems right, but life is often unfair.
Rather surprisingly, the province with the highest level of immunity (14.2%) is Soria, the least populated of all the provinces in Spain. Of the 183 municipalities in Soria, over half are hamlets with less than 100 people. Despite the fact that its capital (also known as Soria) is home to 43% of the people in the province, its population of around 39,000 people means that Soria is not densely populated. It certainly cannot be compared to Madrid or New York.
Everyone had thought that the coronavirus was more deadly in highly populated regions, but apparently, it can also be a danger to rural areas. The focus of Covid-19 on Soria is something that is difficult to explain and will have to be studied in greater depth. Perhaps the coronavirus has a predilection for medieval architecture, bucolic scenery, Castilian gastronomy, and Ribera del Duero wine. There can be no other explanation.
This means that Spaniards are unfortunately not a herd. Indeed, Spain is very far away from herd immunity. Since the gap between 5% and 70% is an impossible leap, especially without a vaccine, the government has realized that another solution will have to be found.
A reporter asked Dr. Fernando Simón what would happen if we simply forgot about all of this antibody testing, exponential curves, and de-escalation phases, and returned to normal life so that businesses could open, tourists could return to our beaches, and the economy could get back on track.
He said exactly the same thing as Dr. Fauci did. He said that if we did that, a lot of people would die.
